Tuesday, January 20, 2009

New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming?

Is it possible that in fact the Earth is entering a significant phase of global cooling? Dr. Theodor Landscheidt seems to think so, in fact his theories predict the start of a new little ice age starting by the year 2030. This interesting paper was published quite a few years back and looks at solar cycles and their length. Dr. Landscheidt goes on to describe the harmonics associated with solar cycles and the possible impacts of solar cycles related to solar angular momentum.

Dr. Theodor Landscheidt claims that we may well be entering a significant solar minimum period perhaps even approaching a Maunder type minimum. This will centre around 2030. He claims we won't have to wait for that time to see it's effects as it will become apparent as we approach it.

The significant temperature drops of the last 2 years in particular along with solar magnetic activity being at at all time recorded low and the persistance of near to no sunspots meaning that solar cycle 24 is already well overdue. There will according to Landscheidt be another Maunder type minimum centred around 2201.

The potential impacts of an impending Maunder Minimum type event, referred to in the article as the Gleissberg Minimum after the identifier of the other Solar Harmonic Cycles, is not something to be summarily dismissed. At the Maunder Minimum the Earth contained probably less than 1 billion people. Now we have about 6 billion. You do not need to be a rocket scientist to realise the impacts of an extended cold period.

I found this paper quite compelling. Certainly worthy of some discussion. Although a small part of me finds the arguments a cause for celebration in that it may be another nail in the coffin of AGW, a much larger part of me sincerely hopes that such a scenario would not occur. Global warming of a degree or two over the next century will be much easier to cope with and adapt to than a Gleissberg Minimum event.

Read the paper, click here.

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